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Oil Price Fluctuations and External Balances of Turkey: 2000-2013


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Authentication Code dc
Title Statement Oil Price Fluctuations and External Balances of Turkey: 2000-2013
Added Entry - Uncontrolled Name Suleyman ACIKALIN; Hitit University
Erginbay UĞURLU; Akkent Mah. 3. Cadde Hitit Universitesi IIBF Kampusu Merkez Corum<span> </span>
Uncontrolled Index Term C32, F41
Oil price; external balances; VAR; Turkey
Summary, etc. The relationship between oil price fluctuations and external balances of Turkey is the main concern of this paper. Economic growth performance of Turkey depends on imported capital goods as well as oil. Oil price increases bring a heavy burden for Turkish economy since Turkey is an oil-importing developing economy. Therefore, it is important to analyze the effects of oil price increases on external balances as well as on economic growth rate. We aim to examine the effects of imported oil price fluctuations on Turkey’s trade and current account balances using structural vector autoregression (VAR) model in this paper. Monthly data set for the period of 2000-2012 is used in this study. In order to capture the net effects of imported oil price on Turkey’s external balances, output gap is used as a control variable in the model. Early results through impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decomposition indicated that the net effect of oil price fluctuations on external balances exist in the short run. Further analysis of the results and a discussion on policy implications will be added shortly.
Publication, Distribution, Etc. International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration (ICESBA 2014)
2014-10-09 00:00:00
Index Term - Genre/Form Peer-reviewed Paper
Electronic Location and Access application/pdf
Data Source Entry International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration (ICESBA 2014); International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration
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